By Burton G. Malkiel

ISBN-10: 0071452257

ISBN-13: 9780071452250

ISBN-10: 0071469613

ISBN-13: 9780071469616

ISBN-10: 0393047814

ISBN-13: 9780393047813

Okay, so i am not performed with the booklet but, yet i am already irked that i learn the 1st a hundred pages while it will probably simply were condensed into twenty or thirty pages. Soo boring... Get to the beef already!

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Additional info for A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing

Sample text

In regards to the market, many have hypothesized that analysts get much more confident about their predictions after they have met the management of the company and formed personal opinions about their talent—or lack thereof. And they often can be seen clinging to these opinions even after factual events have proved them wrong. Think of all the investors who, at the end 20 WHAT WORKS ON WALL STREET of the 1990s, based their investment decisions just on their most recent personal experience in the market.

An agent visits you at home, interviews you, checks out your spouse The Unreliable Experts: Getting in the Way of Outstanding Performance 19 and children, and finally makes a judgment based on his gut feelings. How many people who should get coverage would be denied, and how many millions of dollars in premiums would be lost? The reverse is also true. Someone who should be denied might be extended coverage because the agent’s gut feeling was this individual is different, despite what actuarial tests say.

This illustrates our dilemma. Models beat human forecasters because they reliably and consistently apply the same criteria time after time. In almost every instance, it is the total reliability of application of the model that accounts for its superior performance. Models never vary. They are always consistent. 16 WHAT WORKS ON WALL STREET They are never moody, never fight with their spouse, are never hung over from a night on the town, and never get bored. They don’t favor vivid, interesting stories over reams of statistical data.

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A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing by Burton G. Malkiel


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